It's the Refugees Stupid...

It’s the refugees stupid! To turn a phrase here might serve us all to keep our eyes on the wave that’s now cresting across the Fertile Crescent.

The migration, and potential migration, of untold hundreds of thousands (perhaps in the millions) of Iraqi refugees to Jordan and Syria (and Iran to a lesser extent) is the unspoken fulcrum for U.S. leverage to facilitate our rapid exit from Iraq.

Before I go on…I know some of you are wondering what about Saudi Arabia?…well that paleo-Sultanate will stay locked up tighter than a drum to in-migration (unless you count the sex-slave trade they are so adept at hiding), thus they will not be a player in the scenario I outline below.

Throughout history it is the transnational movement of sizeable refugee populations (those exodus that threaten a country’s national security and welfare) that provide the impetus for sovereign states to take regional risks. No rational player associated with the Fertile Crescent can ignore the likely refugee consequences of a U.S. withdrawal sans regional commitments to a stable Iraq.

Currently, it is money (usually dollars) that buys an Iraqi family passage into one of these neighboring countries. That will change very soon (if it has not already) as the human wave of Sunnis head West and the Shiites move East (or South), both running from each other and the militias fighting for control of center.

(Side Bar: Do not delude yourself that the militias are going to make a petrol-grab for the pipelines. They are well patrolled and too vital as spoils to the victor. Save that inferno for later.)

However, the second wave of refugees will not be the well-heeled, upper-crust, of Iraqi society. They will be the desperate and hungry, seeking to cross borders with all the motivation that fear, famine, and despair can muster. This movement will be huge. And, (take note here) it will be escorted by U.S. troops ordered to prevent genocide and mass starvations. Can you see it yet? The U.N. setting up colossal tent cities on the borders just inside Jordan and Syria? It does not take much imagination to picture such a ghastly scenario.

This pile of humanity is the fulcrum upon which our callous U.S. decision makers are now leveraging regional powers (and the U.N.). Watch the picture unfold in the next month. Our country is about to play a heartless (soulless) game of chicken within the region.

Just in case you are wondering why Dick Cheney is going to Saudi Arabia…it is (was) to deliver a promise to the Sultans of Slavery that they would not be subjected to the flood. Redeployment, in this case, means: “Sure your Highness, we’ll guard your border.”